Ethiopia met 1 of 12 IMF prior actions, Uganda hiked to 12%, and Dangote bought 24.7% of Kenya's pipeline.

Money still flows into East Africa, but this week it priced politics first. Ethiopia's war in Tigray now costs it time with the IMF, which pushed a review and its disbursement into 2027. Uganda spent 225 basis points of policy rate and its first dollar sale since 2022 to stop foreign money leaving its bond market. In Nairobi, Aliko Dangote paid about $327 million for a quarter of the national pipeline in the same week investors left the government's one-year bill two-thirds covered. Ebola tested whether donor money reaches the ground, and Joseph Kabila's new rebel front put Congo's 2028 succession in play. The common thread is a higher price for trust, and the countries that can show their numbers are the ones still raising money.

What happened. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed named a six-month caretaker administration for Tigray on Oct 16, with elections promised inside that window, after federal forces took Mekelle and Aksum. The Reporter's Amharic edition named its chief executive as Asefa Abreha. On Oct 21 the same paper reported that the IMF moved the sixth review of Ethiopia's Extended Credit Facility (ECF) from October to early 2027, after the country met only 1 of 12 prior actions. Ethiopia has drawn $2.647 billion under the program, including $464 million at the fifth review in July.

Why it matters. The delay lands as Ethiopia tries to leave default. Fitch, quoted by Capital Ethiopia on Oct 17, expects the $1 billion eurobond exchange to finish by the end of 2026, swapping into an $880 million bond with a 6.15% coupon, and keeps the country at Restricted Default. Gross reserves of about $5.9 billion cover roughly 2.5 months of imports, so every IMF tranche matters. The war also raises the cost of the 2026 currency reform. The National Bank of Ethiopia's February directive lets banks write forwards without central bank approval and lets service exporters hold dollars with no time limit, but a delayed review weakens the dollar supply behind those rules. The official rate sat at 160.99 birr to the dollar on Oct 10. Rebels of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) claim they killed 1,511 federal soldiers on Oct 17-18, a party-stated figure no one has verified.

The Bank of Uganda called an emergency meeting on Oct 14 and raised its Central Bank Rate (CBR) by 2.25 points to 12%. It also lifted the cash reserve requirement (CRR) banks hold at the central bank from 11% to 13.5%, and sold about $30 million, its first direct intervention since June 2022, according to the Daily Monitor. Governor Michael Atingi-Ego said the move was needed to keep a lid on inflation.

Inflation is not the problem yet. It was 4.6% in September. The shilling is. It hit a record low of Shs4,143 to the dollar, its weakest since 1993, and Citigroup estimates more than $200 million of foreign money left Ugandan bonds in two weeks. Reuters reports demand for 10-year Ugandan debt has risen to 17%.

For foreign holders of shilling bonds, the exit price now depends on how often the central bank sells dollars into a thin market. A Monitor headline says President Museveni rejected a proposal to use reserves to support the shilling, which we could not read beyond the headline.

Kenya's Director-General for Health, Dr Patrick Amoth, confirmed a ninth Ebola case on Oct 20, with one death. No new case appeared by Oct 22, and the first contacts leave quarantine from Oct 25. In DR Congo, the outbreak has reached 9,552 confirmed cases and 4,602 deaths across eight provinces, per ECDC figures.

Africa CDC chief Jean Kaseya says Kinshasa was told what happened to only $220 million of the $962 million donated, Semafor reported. Reuters puts the reported figure at $228 million and quotes Kaseya saying it is too early to speak of embezzlement. He has threatened to bar aid groups that do not report, and called health ministers to a virtual summit on Oct 28.

The neighbors are drawing lines. Uganda says it has zero active cases after Nigeria traced an imported case to travel through Uganda. Tanzania's chief medical officer, Prof Bruno Sunguya, told Mwananchi on Oct 21 that the country has no Ebola and issued new traveller guidelines on Oct 17. Business Daily reports the US raised its Kenya travel advisory to Level 3, a cost for tourism and business travel.

Aliko Dangote bought about 4.5 billion shares of Kenya Pipeline Company in a block trade on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) on Oct 19, for KSh 42.5 billion, about $327 million. Business Daily puts the stake at 24.7%. The shares rose about 8%, to a high of Sh9.78. At a market value of KSh 163.9 billion and the central bank's rate of 129.91, the whole company is worth about $1.26 billion, our calculation, which squares the price with Semafor's "about $1.2 billion". The buyer entity was not named and we found no regulator filing.

The state's own borrowing looks harder. The government's 364-day Treasury bill drew bids for only 66.43% of the amount offered at the Oct 15 auction, the second auction in a row below full cover, while 91-day paper was oversubscribed six times. Investors are staying short because they expect rates to rise. Governor Kamau Thugge told Bloomberg Kenya has no balance of payments need for an IMF program, and Bloomberg says eurobond yields have risen by as much as 100 basis points since early September.

Equity is still coming. The Quickmart supermarket IPO prices at KES 7.50 a share for a KES 30 billion valuation and closes Oct 30, with a UK-backed fund taking a 6.5% stake for Sh1.94 billion.

Former president Joseph Kabila launched the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN) in Goma, absorbing the AFC/M23 rebel alliance, with Corneille Nangaa and Bertrand Bisimwa as deputies and Sultani Makenga as army chief. Belgium's foreign minister, Maxime Prévot, condemned the move "sans la moindre équivoque" on Oct 21, while backing new rounds of the Doha and Washington talks in October and November, Actualité.cd reported in French.

In Kinshasa, the National Assembly took up a bill on Oct 23 that sets the rules for holding a referendum. President Félix Tshisekedi sent it back in September, and it still needs the Senate. The opposition reads it as a route past the two-term limit, so it is proposed, not law.

For investors the exposure is legal as well as physical. Washington sanctioned Kabila in April, according to Al Jazeera, so any counterparty linked to his circle now carries sanctions and politically exposed person risk. Chengtun Congo Resources has publicly denied buying minerals illegally or financing the Kabila camp. DR Congo also remains on the FATF grey list ahead of the plenary that opens Oct 26.

■  Tanzania charged Chadema's John Pambalu with treason at Kisutu court on Oct 21, a week before the Oct 29 anniversary of the 2025 election protests. Tundu Lissu's treason verdict is due Nov 6 (Mwananchi, Swahili).

■  Somalia's electoral commission set parliamentary polls for Apr 15, 2027 and the presidential vote for May 15, 2027. Former president Farmaajo called it a threat to the state (Al Jazeera, Goobjoog in Somali).

■  A drone strike on Amiet market in Abyei killed 153 people, says the area's information minister, who blames Sudan's army. Khartoum denies it (Radio Tamazuj). President Kiir also sacked his longtime cabinet affairs minister, Martin Elia Lomuro.

■  The UK confined Eritrean diplomats to 60 km of London from Oct 15 and threatened a total visa ban. Fewer than 4% of 2,626 rejected Eritrean asylum seekers were deported in four years (Africanews).

■  Burundi signed a $1.4 billion, 25-year power distribution concession with US-backed Weza Power, aiming to lift electricity access from about 15% to over 50% by 2030. The debt split, tariff currency and guarantee terms were not disclosed, and franc revenue against dollar funding is the risk to watch (Africa.com, Semafor).

■  The National Bank of Ethiopia joined PAPSS, the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, on Oct 15, which lets payments inside Africa settle without a dollar leg (Central Banking).

■  The Bank of Tanzania held its rate at 6.25% for the fourth quarter (Mwananchi, Swahili). Rwanda's inflation rose to 17.2% in September (Financial Afrik citing NISR).

■  Kenya's economy grew 5.1% in the second quarter, up from 4.9% a year earlier, and Cabinet approved $350 million of shareholder loans for Kenya Airways (Capital FM, Business Daily).

■  Formula One agreed a 10-year deal for a Rwandan Grand Prix at Bugesera from the early 2030s. No cost has been published (PA).

ECF Extended Credit Facility, an IMF lending program for low-income countries · CBR Central Bank Rate, the policy interest rate in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania · CRR Cash reserve requirement, the share of deposits banks must park at the central bank · PAPSS Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, for paying across African borders in local currencies · FRN Front for the Refoundation of the Nation, Joseph Kabila's new rebel coalition · TPLF Tigray People's Liberation Front, the party and armed movement in northern Ethiopia · FATF Financial Action Task Force, which keeps the grey list of countries under increased monitoring · NSE Nairobi Securities Exchange

Uganda tightened hardest with the lowest inflation of the four, which tells you the hike was about the shilling and foreign bond money, not prices. Tanzania is left out because the central bank's page and its spokesperson disagree on whether 4.3% was the August or September reading.

■  Ethiopia debt. The $1bn eurobond exchange into an $880m bond at 6.15% needs 75% bondholder consent and could finish by end-2026, per Fitch via Capital Ethiopia. The IMF sends a mission in November.

■  Dangote in Addis. Dangote plans to float at least 10% of the $4bn-plus Gode fertilizer plant on the Ethiopian Securities Exchange, The Reporter (Amharic) says. Proposed, and not yet backed by the prime minister.

■  Quickmart IPO. KES 15bn raise closes Oct 30, needs 75% subscription, lists Nov 12 on the NSE. IFC has a conditional commitment of up to $15m (tech-ish, Business Daily).

■  Tanzania rules. The Bank of Tanzania has seven draft banking regulations open for comment until Oct 28 (bot.go.tz). Proposed, not in force.

■  FATF. Kenya, DR Congo and South Sudan were on the grey list after the June plenary. The October plenary runs Oct 26-30 in Paris. An exit would cut the enhanced checks banks apply to those countries' payments.

■  Eritrea sanctions. The US lifted its Eritrea sanctions in September (Al Jazeera). Ethiopia now accuses Eritrea of backing the TPLF, so the delisting is worth re-checking before any Asmara deal.

The Ethiopia-Djibouti corridor carries about 97% of Ethiopia's trade and about 1,000 trucks a day, The Reporter's Amharic edition noted this week. That single road is why a war in the north and a fight over the Red Sea are business stories, and why Djibouti's port fees matter as much to Addis as any IMF tranche.

That's the week. Back next Friday. Reply to this email, we read everything. And if Rwanda is on your radar, our sister edition Kilwa Rwanda publishes the same day.

Kilwa East Africa · Friday, October 23, 2026 · Vol. 1 · No. 2 · Week 43

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Kilwa East Africa is produced by the Kilwa Research team from sources in English, Swahili, Amharic, Somali, French, Kinyarwanda and Tigrinya. Figures carry their source and date, and unconfirmed reports are labeled. Kilwa Technologies is a research and data company, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice. kilwa.io