Mogadishu's legal crisis, a $1.2 billion rail loan for Tanzania, two wins for Congo and a hard World Bank verdict on Kenya.

Courts and creditors set East Africa's agenda this week, and they pulled in opposite directions. In Mogadishu, a Supreme Court bench ruled that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term ran out in May and ordered elections within 90 days, a day after he replaced the chief justice. In Dar es Salaam, a judge cleared opposition leader Tundu Lissu of treason. Lenders, meanwhile, rewarded governments that did the paperwork: nine banks signed a $1.2 billion loan for Tanzania's railway behind an African Development Bank guarantee, and DR Congo left the FATF grey list days before reaching an IMF deal worth about $771 million. The World Bank told Kenya the opposite story, that graft adds about 2 percentage points of GDP to its deficit every year. Ethiopia shows the limit of all this: Safaricom's losses there almost vanished in the same week the WHO warned the northern war is pushing the health system toward collapse. Institutions are now the price of capital in this region, and the region's politics are testing them.

What happened. On Nov 5 a five-judge bench of the Supreme Court's constitutional division, led by Justice Salah Sheikh Ibrahim Dhiblawe, ruled that the March amendments extending terms from four to five years could not apply to the sitting president. AFP and the BBC report the court found that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud should have left office in May, and ordered the parties to agree an election plan within 30 days and hold elections within 90 days. The day before, the presidency removed Chief Justice Bashe Yusuf Ahmed, citing complaints about the judiciary, and named Ibrahim Idle Suleiman. The bench declared that dismissal null and void.

Why it matters. Somalia now has an executive and a court that each deny the other's authority, with the 30-day clock running to about Dec 5 and the 90-day clock to about Feb 3, 2027 (our count from Nov 5). Former prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire said troops were deployed to the court. AFP and the BBC could not verify that. The security backdrop is thin: Uganda, the largest troop contributor, has started pulling forces out, with all of them due home by the end of 2027, according to army spokesman Chris Magezi. The electoral commission's own timetable puts parliamentary polls on Apr 15, 2027, a date Puntland, Jubaland and the opposition reject (BBC). For anyone with money in Mogadishu, the question is whether donors keep paying a government a court calls a caretaker.

Tanzania closed a $1.2 billion commercial loan on Nov 4 for the 411 km Tabora to Kigoma section of its standard gauge railway, part of a $2.3 billion package for the line. Nine banks lend, with Deutsche Bank and Société Générale as arrangers. The African Development Bank (AfDB) backs $720 million of the loan with an $800 million partial credit guarantee covering principal and two years of interest, and broker Texel placed $405.5 million of credit insurance, per the AfDB statement reported by Mwananchi.

The structure is the story. Debt is sized on the Tanzanian state's ability to pay, not on rail revenue, so most of the loan rests on the AfDB's triple-A guarantee rather than on Tanzania's own credit. The cost is currency risk: the loan is in dollars while fares and freight come in shillings, at about 2,654 to the dollar on the Bank of Tanzania's Nov 6 selling rate. Tenor and pricing were not disclosed. The line is meant to reach Burundi and Kalemie in DR Congo, which is why Kinshasa lawmakers are now pitching a Congolese dry port near Dar es Salaam (Actualite.cd).

The World Bank's Kenya Economic Update, launched in Nairobi on Nov 4, raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.6% from 4.3%, and put corruption at the center of its findings. It estimates graft widens the budget deficit by about 2 percentage points of GDP a year, with public debt at about 70.6% of GDP and roughly a third of revenue going to interest. Moderate reform could lift GDP 8.7% by 2035, strong reform 22.3%, per The Star. Treasury Principal Secretary Chris Kiptoo answered with e-procurement and digitization.

The rest of Kenya's data moved the wrong way for a borrower that wants cheaper money. Inflation rose to 7.3% in October from 6.8%, and at the Nov 5 Treasury bill auction investors bid for only 53% of the 182-day paper and 59% of the 364-day paper on offer, while the 91-day bill drew 508%. That is money shortening its horizon ahead of the 2027 election. The bright spot: the Stanbic PMI rose to 52.5 from 51.3, a 2026 high. Kenya also remains on the FATF grey list, and The Star reports it is targeting an exit in April 2027.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) removed DR Congo from its grey list at its Oct 26 to 30 plenary, after Finance Minister Doudou Fwamba's team completed a 23-point action plan. On Nov 4, IMF staff led by Calixte Ahokpossi reached agreement on the program's next reviews, worth about $771 million on board approval in December, including about $240 million for the Ebola response.

The grey-list exit removes one trigger for extra checks at foreign correspondent banks, which should mean fewer delays on dollar payments for Congolese banks over time. Bank-by-bank de-risking decisions lag the list. The risks have not gone anywhere. Former president Joseph Kabila now chairs the Front pour la refondation de la nation, the movement that replaced AFC/M23, and government spokesman Patrick Muyaya said in London "Ils n'arriveront pas à Kinshasa" ("they will not reach Kinshasa"). Ebola has reached 10,668 confirmed cases and 5,198 deaths, per ECDC as of Nov 4, up from 4,928 deaths a week earlier.

Safaricom said on Nov 5 that its Ethiopian unit cut its EBITDA loss by 96.5% to KShs 434.4 million in the six months to September, on revenue up 71.6% and 15.43 million active customers. Group net income rose 35.9% to KShs 58.15 billion, and Business Daily reports the company expects to hit its March 2027 Ethiopia profit target. The net loss in Ethiopia was still KShs 8.8 billion.

The country around that business is getting more dangerous. On Nov 2 WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said violence in northern Ethiopia "is pushing an already fragile health system closer to collapse", and Reuters sources told Al Jazeera at least 15 people died in drone strikes on a displacement camp in Amhara. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said Ethiopia had received 12 Russian Su-35 jets, and Addis accuses Eritrea of backing the rebels, which Asmara denies. The National Bank of Ethiopia held its rate at 16% on Nov 3 with inflation at 14.6%. For investors, the telecom numbers show the market works. The war decides whether the dollars can come home.

■  Tanzania's High Court cleared Chadema chairman Tundu Lissu of treason on Nov 6 but convicted him of the lesser charge of incitement, Reuters reports. He had faced the death penalty. Sentencing details were not public when we closed.

■  South Sudan and Sudan clashed at the UN Security Council on Nov 5 over including Abyei in South Sudan's Dec 22 elections. The UN peacekeeping mandate in Abyei expires Nov 15 (Radio Tamazuj, Eye Radio).

■  Uganda's army holds former deputy army chief Peter Elwelu without charge. Spokesman Chris Magezi said 15 guns were recovered (Africanews).

■  Fighting around Moyale on the Ethiopia-Kenya border has displaced at least 11,000 people, per UNHCR, and the Kenyan Red Cross says stray bullets killed three people in Kenya (Africanews and AFP).

■  Sudan and Ethiopia shut each other's consulates in a tit-for-tat move after RSF drone attacks, Al Jazeera reports.

■  WHO approved trials of two new Ebola vaccines in DR Congo, with results expected in early 2027. Kenya's count stands at 9 cases and 2 deaths (Al Jazeera, ECDC).

■  The US will end Rwanda's AGOA duty-free access from Jan 1, 2027, USTR Jamieson Greer said on Nov 2, citing rule of law and human rights (Al Jazeera, MT Newswires).

■  A Kenyan tribunal dismissed a consumer group's challenge to Dangote's planned Lamu refinery (Reuters via CNBC Africa).

■  PetroChina is exploring a 1,550 km oil corridor from South Sudan through Ethiopia to Djibouti. Talks are exploratory (Capital Ethiopia).

■  A parliamentary audit found the Arusha stadium for AFCON 2027 rose from a Sh187 billion estimate to a Sh338.54 billion award. That ran only in Swahili (Mwananchi).

AfDB African Development Bank, a multilateral lender owned by African and non-African states · FATF Financial Action Task Force, the global anti-money-laundering standard setter · AGOA African Growth and Opportunity Act, the US duty-free trade program for Africa · EBITDA Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, a measure of operating profit · PMI Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 means business activity is growing · BoU Bank of Uganda, the central bank · NBE National Bank of Ethiopia, the central bank · MONUSCO The UN peacekeeping mission in DR Congo

Uganda moved most: inflation jumped 1.2 points in one month after the shilling fell, which is why the Bank of Uganda's Nov 9 meeting matters for every dollar investor in Kampala's bond market. Ethiopia's rate is still the highest, but it is easing.

■  Tanzania railway. $1.2 billion closed with an $800 million AfDB guarantee and $405.5 million of credit insurance. Export credit money sits in the wider $2.3 billion package, amount not disclosed.

■  DR Congo IMF. Staff-level agreement on Nov 4, about $771 million on board approval in December. The government asked for looser 2026 and 2027 deficit ceilings (Actualite.cd).

■  FATF. DR Congo is off the grey list. Kenya stays on it and targets April 2027 (The Star).

■  Somalia shipping. The US Coast Guard set conditions of entry on vessels arriving from Somali ports, saying they lack effective antiterrorism measures (Federal Register, Oct 27). Expect higher insurance and port costs on Somali trade.

■  Rwanda trade. AGOA access ends Jan 1, 2027, on top of the late-October US sanctions on the defense ministry and Zigama CSS.

■  Kenya bills. Cover below 1.0x on the 182-day and 364-day bills at the Nov 5 auction. Watch whether the Treasury lifts rates to fill longer paper.

Kenya's mobile subscriptions rose nearly 10% to 78.4 million, according to S&P data cited by Semafor, which we could not check at source. That is the market Safaricom is trying to recreate in Ethiopia, where it already has 15.43 million active customers and a war on its doorstep.

That's the week. Back next Friday. Reply to this email, we read everything. If Rwanda is on your radar, our sister edition Kilwa Rwanda publishes the same day. Our record over the past 30 days: Errors 0 · Late 1 · Omissions 0.

Kilwa East Africa · Friday, November 6, 2026 · Vol. 1 · No. 4 · Week 45

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Kilwa East Africa is produced by the Kilwa Research team from sources in English, Swahili, Somali, Amharic and French. Figures carry their source and date, and unconfirmed reports are labeled. Kilwa Technologies is a research and data company, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is investment, legal or tax advice. kilwa.io